Tropical Storm Francine is forming in the Gulf heading towards US landfall as the name suggests.
Francine was the 6th named storm in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. It’s also the first named storm since Ernesto was gone on August. 20.
Tropical Storm Francine developed at the Gulf of Mexico on Monday and is likely to be a Category 1 hurricane with a low-end on Wednesday. It is headed towards landfall on the Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts.
A warning for hurricanes was issued for areas along the Louisiana coast, indicating that the possibility of hurricane conditions is present in the next 48 hours.
An earlier tropical storm warning was announced in Southern Texas, from Port Mansfield southward to south of the Rio Grande River, which means that tropical storms could be possible across the coast on Tuesday evening. The tropical storm warning extends southward all along the Mexican coast until Barra del Tordo.
The system’s center was estimated to be 245 miles to the south-east from the mouth of Rio Grande and about 480 miles to the south to Cameron, Louisiana, on Monday morning. With sustained winds of fifty mph Francine only moved at 5 miles per hour in a north-northwesterly orientation.
Francine will be the six named storm of the season.
Francine was the 6th named storm in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. It is also the first named storm since Ernesto was gone on August. 20.
The system is among three hurricane centers keeping an eye on. Another one is located located in the central part of the Atlantic and has an opportunity of 60% of developing into a tropical storm within the next 48 hours. A storm further to the east has a 60% probability of developing over the next week.
The forecast of the center predicts Francine as a mid-level category 1 storm on Wednesday with 85 mph winds.The storm is expected to bring between 4 and 8 inches of rain towards the coastline. Up to 12 inches could be possible in certain areas in the northeastern region of Mexico as well along Texas as well as Louisiana coasts until Thursday which could create a flash flooding threat, according to the center.
Francine is expected to accelerate its motion toward the northeast before the end of Tuesday, as it encounters an icy front on the Gulf Coast. It will be off the Texas coast and could be heading towards an eventual landfall in an upper Texas as well as the Louisiana coast by Wednesday morning, according to Donald Jones, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Lake Charles, Louisiana in the evening briefing held on Sunday.
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Storm could turn into a Category 2
Jones advised residents of Southwestern Louisiana to keep an eye on the weather, and said there is a possibility that the storm could turn into a Category 2 hurricane. As of now, landfall may occur on Wednesday night on the southwest Louisiana coastline, Jones said.
The water temperatures in the Gulf are higher than usual and could contribute to the development of a hurricane, Jones said. When the system has an identifiable central area, the hurricane center has said that it is possible to see steady growth. The storm will be located situated over an area of warmer Gulf with an area with plenty of humidity, the center noted, but it could be impacted by an increase in the wind shear as well as dry air that may stop any significant strengthening.
“We’re going to be looking at 8 to 12 inches of rainfall south of Interstate 10 in southwestern Louisiana,” Jones added.
In the present, the most significant threat is flooding, Jones said. The path that the storm is taking moved slightly to the east on Sunday, and may shift further towards the east, he added.