France is preparing for “high drama’ run-offs, as Le Pen’s eyes on the right have power
With the far right appearing poised to win those who are left-leaning and the center are on edge.
By Sophie Stuber
Jul 06, 2024 08:37 AM
Paris, France – France is preparing to head to the polls again for a second round of voting for the National Assembly.
Following his party’s defeat by the far-right in this year’s European Parliament vote the president Emmanuel Macron dissolved the parliament and ordered two round of snap elections.
In the first election, the ultra-right National Rally (RN) party won with greater than 29 per cent of votes.
Protests are again taking over across the nation as protesters demand that voters take to the streets on Sunday in support of the group that was previously called The National Front.
On the streets of Paris the previous Wednesday thousands of people were marching starting from Place de la Republique to the National Rally’s headquarters in the French capital.
“The mood is quite high drama and intense,” said Philippe Marliere, professor of French and European politics at University College London. “It is a mood of mobilisation on the part of all those who don’t want National Rally to get a majority or even win the election.”
Macron’s Renaissance party received only around 20 percent of the votes during the initial round. A left-wing coalition that is referred to as”The New Popular Front” New Popular Front, scored higher, with a score of 28 percent. The New Popular Front coalition aims to bring together the voters against the anti-immigrant and nationalist RN party, headed by Marine Le Pen.
Danielle Barron moved to France from the United States more than 20 years ago, right the day after Jacques Chirac defeated Jean-Marie Le Pen Marine’s father in an election-day run-off.
The children of Barron were raised in France The family was made French citizens in 2004. Barron has been a voter in France since.
“I came to France within six months of the US elections of 2002 with a sense of optimism and conviction the country was a rotten democratic system that was enshrined in institutionalised racism, and rapidly becoming a radical right-wing government. I had no idea that, 23 years on, I’d be confronted with the same concerns in my new home country,” Barron told Al Jazeera.
While the result of the very first election were not shocking, those from the Left are concerned they’re not having enough options against the RN.
“Mobilising those on the left and creating an alliance and seeing a huge increase of voters isn’t enough. The far-right still prevailed and it’s a little sad,” Baptiste Colin, a 29-year-old theatre director from Lyon spoke to Al Jazeera. “I am still happy to see the Popular Front and parties who have united or candidates who have [stepped down] to not split the vote.”
The turnout of voters in the opening round was extremely high with 68 percent of the vote, in comparison to 47.5 percent during the 2022 elections for parliament. Over 70 of the candidates with the majority of votes were elected during the initial round. Others will go to run-offs, with the top two or three candidates in each area.
“Confronted by the National Rally, it is time for a large, clearly democratic and republican alliance for the second round,” Macron stated in a press release following the results of the initial round.
However, many supporters of Macron’s Renaissance party aren’t willing to support the Popular Front candidate for the second round, despite Macron’s Popular Front trailing in the polls.
“Macron voters could decide the outcome of the election. They are able to stop the RN however I’m concerned that it’s already too late, and Macron voters aren’t ready to cast their vote in favor of the left. There’s still talk of comparing the left and the far right, in terms of extreme actions,” Colin said.
In the run-offs, the center could be able to join with the left-leaning coalition to avoid three-way contests that would split the vote of non-RN voters.
“Withdrawals are necessary. If you don’t have any withdrawals, and you’re running three candidates voters don’t make their choices strategically. People tend to be loyal to their choice,” Marliere said. “But it’s not about choosing to support an opponent. It’s about making use of that vote to stop this National Rally.”
When you give power to the extreme right and you don’t know when they’ll give it back’
While the results of the initial round aren’t able to predict the final outcome of the 577 parliamentary seats that are open The RN is likely to secure a majority of seats in the National Assembly. If this happens, it could bring the far-right group to power in an election at the very first time in French history, a mere nearly 80 years after the socialist Vichy regime signed an alliance during wartime to the Nazis.
“We are never this close to seeing a party that is based on xenophobia and racism, and links to Nazi collaborators at the time of its roots, gain the top of the list. The second vote is important as it will determine the country direction for the next few years, even if it is not for the next generation.” Rim-Sarah alouane, one of the French scholar in comparative law and research at University Toulouse Capitole, told Al Jazeera.
“I’m not exaggerating by saying the very foundation of our Republic is on very shaky ground,” she stated. “The extreme right isn’t an ordinary party. If you give the power to the extreme right it is impossible to predict when they’ll give the power back.”
If the RN gets the absolutely majority Jordan Bardella, Le Pen’s ally, could be the new prime minister.
With the help of Bardella, far-right has won the majority of young voters. 25 percent of 18 to 24-year-olds supported Bardella’s RN at the beginning of this election, as per the latest poll, which is nearly double the percentage from two years ago.
“There’s excitement surrounding the RN. Bardella is young and active on TikTok and there’s this notion that it’s fashionable to support the RN however, before that it was considered outdated,” Colin said.
Daniel Szabo, a 48-year-old French-Hungarian English translator and literature professor in Brittany Szabo, who teaches in Brittany, said “People aren’t even voting on behalf of the person they want to vote for. They’re choosing Bardella for the post of prime minister hoping that their vote will lead Bardella to an absolute majority. However, most local candidates aren’t good.”
On the other hand, Szabo observed the far right’s influence growing during this election.
“Brittany has always been more open and voted less for the RN,” said the senator stated. “But it’s the first time it’s the RN is the first choice in many of the districts. I believe it’s Macron’s responsibility. Macron has been a bit overly confident. He’s extremely clever but he hasn’t been able to do a great job.”
In France the French prime minister sets the national agenda. This means that Bardella would be able to implement many of RN’s strict policy into a policy.
“They’d be able to be in a position to pass virtually all kinds of legislation,” Marliere stated.
Some of Bardella’s suggestions include depriving convicts of access to public housing, ending medical care for those who are not immigrants, excluding emergency situations, removing automatic citizenship rights after age 18, for those who were born in France to parents who are not French and cutting France’s contribution towards the European Union by 2 billion euros ($2.16bn).
“The RN is making all the promises people want to hear with the easy political trick to put the blame on immigrants, especially Arab immigrants,” Szabo declared.
Ondine Debre, 44, who divides her time among her home in the Loire Valley and Paris, has expressed her concern over the current state of the nation should the RN gets anything near the majority.
“Many citizens in France were skeptical that the far right could be in the ascendancy However, we are now aware that many people don’t feel heard in the current system of politics. I’m hoping that the parties of the left and in the centre recognize this. We need a unified democratic and humanist values,” she added. “The RN is a threat to many civil liberties, not only for multinational citizens, but for all French people.”