Here’s Why Michelle Obama Led A Presidential Poll–And Why She Won’t Replace Biden

The former first lady Michelle Obama has repeatedly turned on the idea of running for president, despite one poll suggested she could defeat the former president Donald Trump in a head-to-head contest.

By Brian Bushard

Jul 03, 2024 04:59 PM

 

Topline

A recent poll indicated that a majority of people would favor the idea of a presidential campaign of former first lady Michelle Obama, even though she’s repeatedly resisted the possibility of running according to analysts, and as a rising number of Democrats insist on the president Joe Biden to drop out of the race after his disastrous performance in the debate this week.

Key Facts

Obama is the wife of the former President Barack Obama, was the only Democratto beat the former president Donald Trump in a hypothetical November game according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that was released on Tuesday. And Obama did it with aplomb beating Trump 50percent to 39 percent.

Biden is stuck in a 40-40 percent dead heat against Trump on the Ipsos poll. Vice-President Kamala Harris trailed Trump 43%-42 percent. California Governor. Gavin Newsom trailed 42%-39% and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer was well behind Trump who scored 41% against her 36 percent.

Michelle Obama has maintained a favorable rating among voters for more than 10 years: A Quinnipiac University poll found that more than three-quarters of the voters were positive about her which was higher than that of her husband in the first period of his presidency (56.5 percent) and over the former president Bill Clinton (59.2%).

But in spite of Obama’s tenure as a member of the White House, her role as a champion for healthy eating and fighting inequality in wealth, as well as her well-known book “Becoming,” the former first lady has repeatedly and repeatedly denied the possibility of a presidential campaign, saying bluntly at the conclusion the second year of husband’s term that she said: “No, nope, I’m not going to run.”

She increased her stance regarding her stance against running in the coming year, urging voters to vote Biden instead, even in a political action group was created to back Obama as Biden’s vice president selection.

The speculation of an Michelle Obama presidential run–and a possible Biden-Michelle Obama ticket–floods in March, when CNN commentator Alisyn Camerota suggesting the possibility of an Obama vice-presidential candidate and a variety of media outlets reported that Democrats were hints of an Michelle Obama campaign amid concerns regarding Biden’s advancing age after the report of Special Counsel Robert Hur declaring that Biden as an “elderly man with a weak memory” (Obama has rejected suggestions for a presidential run again in a statement sent to NBC News).

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Surprising Fact

Despite Obama frequently claiming she’s never interested in a presidential run however, some bettors aren’t convinced. Platform for betting Polymarket offers odds of her having the chance to be 2024’s Democratic presidential candidate at 6% — higher than the numbers similar to California Governor. Gavin Newsom, who had odds of 5 in the opinion of Polymarket.

Key Background

Biden has been subject to questions regarding his advancing health throughout the course of his term and has also faced a lot of criticism from Trump who has frequently attacked Biden’s performance over his alleged decline in physical and mental capacity and has often mocked the president’s errors. However, Biden’s age was an issue for Democrats during the CNN debate Thursday, in which the 81-year-old seemed to have trouble staying on track in his responses often speaking out of breath as well as in a hoarse, soft voice. At a rally a day afterward, Biden admitted that he does not “debate as effectively” as he did in the past however, he pledged to remain in the race regardless of the growing calls from Democratic politicians and pundits for Biden to resign. Biden was also reportedly admitted privately that he might be forced out when he fails during an interview scheduled for later on ABC News’ George Stephanopoulos, The New York Times reported. However, Biden’s administration has denied the report. Biden administration has denied the claim as being true. Two Democratic lawmakers in Congress — Rep. Lloyd Doggett, D-Texas and Rep. Raul Grijalva, D-Ariz.–have called for Biden to withdraw his bid, while the editors of notable newspapers such as The New York Times and Chicago Tribune have also said Biden should stop his 2024 campaign.

Tangent

The debate after the CNN/SRRS poll showed that Harris is trailing Trump 47%-45 percent, a higher percentage that Biden (six-point gap against Trump), Whitmer (five-point deficit), Newsom (five-point deficit) and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (four-point deficit). According to the poll, FiveThirtyEight‘s weighted polling average puts Biden down by nearly two points in comparison to Trump (41.9 percent to 39.8 percent) in a potential rematch for November but the possibility of a Harris candidacy may also pose issues for Democrats. Harris’ approval rating is an unsatisfactory 37.5 percent, as per FiveThirtyEight which is only marginally higher than Biden (37.2 percent).).

Further Reading

ForbesHere’s Who Is Calling On Joe Biden To Drop Out-A Democratic Lawmaker, Pundits And A Former StafferBy Sara Dorn

ForbesHere’s How Biden’s Billionaire Supporters Are Reacting To Shaky Debate-Cuban Open To Replacing Biden As Hoffman Urges CalmBy Brian Bushard