Investors will head into a shortened trading week with a cloudy January outlook and a looming jobs report. Stocks are off to a mixed start in January, ending lower in a choppy first trading session but riding solid gains on Friday. On top of that, the “Santa Claus” rally, in which stocks rise in the final five trading days of one year and the first two of the next, has also failed to appear — a baleful omen to start 2025 after an unusual bout of weakness to cap off last year. Now investors are carefully watching to see how the rest of the month shapes up, as it historically sets the tone for the rest of the year. The Stock Trader’s Almanac shows that 14 of the last 18 post-presidential election years followed January’s direction, with every down January since 1950 preceding a bear market, a flat market, or a 10% correction. Next week will also wrap the next first five trading days of January — an early measure for how stocks could do this month. “The first thing that will be on investors minds is, ‘what does a disappointing Santa Claus Rally mean for the first five trading days of January?’ And, ‘what does the first five trading days of January imply for the full month?’ And ‘what does the full month indicate for the remainder of the year?'” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research. “I do think that January will be an important read for the full year,” Stovall added. .SPX 5D mountain S & P 500 Stocks are on pace for a losing week, with all three major averages down by nearly one percentage point. The New York Stock Exchange will be closed Thursday, Jan. 9 to mourn the death of former President Jimmy Carter, a customary tradition. The last time the NYSE was closed in remembrance of a former president was in December 2018, following the death of George Herbert Walker Bush. December jobs report Next week will also bring the December jobs report, one of the last key pieces of data before the Federal Reserve’s meeting at the end of this month. The labor report, along with inflation data later this month, could clarify the path for interest rate cuts this year. The pace of jobs added to the U.S. economy is expected to have slowed last month. Nonfarm payrolls is expected to have increased by 160,000 in December, according to economists polled by FactSet. That’s down from 227,000 in the previous month. The U.S. unemployment rate is expected to have held steady at 4.2%, according to FactSet. The data is unlikely to move the needle on the central bank’s decision. Markets were last pricing in a roughly 90% likelihood the Fed will keep rates steady — at its current range between 4.25% and 4.5% — at the conclusion of the Jan. 28-29 meeting, the CME FedWatch Tool showed. An in-line report, or one that comes in softer than expected, could relieve investors who are seeking some cooling in an otherwise resilient labor market. However, if the report comes in hotter than expected, it could disappoint investors, driving stocks to the downside. Elsewhere, minutes from the December Fed meeting are also on the docket. “The two rate cuts, yes, I think have already been factored in. What might not have been factored in is the possibility that they won’t cut rates at all, or they cut rates just once. So I think that’s the concern,” Stovall said. Week ahead calendar All times ET. Monday, Jan. 6 9:45 a.m. PMI Composite final (December) 9:45 a.m. S & P PMI Services final (December) 10 a.m. Durable Orders final (November) 10 a.m. Factory Orders (November) Tuesday, Jan. 7 8:30 a.m. Trade Balance (November) 10 a.m. ISM Services PMI (December) 10 a.m. JOLTS Job Openings (November) Wednesday, Jan. 8 8:15 a.m. ADP Employment Survey (December) 2 p.m. FOMC Minutes 3 p.m. Consumer Credit (November) Thursday, Jan. 9 8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (12/28) 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (01/04) 10 a.m. Wholesale Inventories final (November) Stock market will be closed. Earnings: Constellation Brands Friday, Jan. 10 8:30 a.m. December Payrolls 10 a.m. Michigan Sentiment preliminary (January) Earnings: Walgreens Boots Alliance , Delta Air Lines
Investors head into next week with a cloudy January outlook and a looming jobs report