Nomura has some potential surprises investors should at least consider heading into 2025 — and one of them involves bull market leader Nvidia which is weighing on the broader market Monday . As part of its 2025 outlook, the firm listed its so-called grey swan events. Nomura called these the cousins to “black swan” occurrences, which by their nature are impossible to predict. “We prefer a grey swan – a low probability, high impact event that few expect,” the firm told clients, while including some ways to position for these surprises. The first potential “grey swan” event Nomura listed was a significant decline in shares of Nvidia , the high-flying chipmaker that has captured investor interest for more than a year due to its connection to the artificial intelligence boom. Nomura said slowed capital expenditures within tech, delays in the new Blackwell chip and the potential for growth being cooler than expected are all reasons to believe shares could fall off a cliff. Coincidentally, Nvidia found itself in the news on Monday as China announced a regulatory probe over antimonopoly concerns. Shares traded down about 2.5% in Monday morning trading, but the stock was still on track to finish 2024 higher by 178%. NVDA 1D mountain Nvidia, -day In the event that a huge Nvidia drop takes place, Nomura said to expect a large drawdown in U.S. equities given the market’s concentration. However, the firm noted that low index volumes means hedges should stay cheap for investors. Here’s the other five “grey swan” events the bank laid out for clients, along with its tips on how to best position:
Nomura’s ‘grey swans’ for 2025 should give investors pause