Thai Heiress is back to bring discordant Dynasty. But how long?
Ms. Paetongtarn has a new face and is another member of the Shinawatra clan to the top of the heap.
By Jonathan Head
Aug 16, 2024 08:49 AM
Paetongtarn Shinawatra is a young young, youthful look, and another of the Shinawatra clan to the nation’s top post.
The daughter is Thaksin Shinawatra, who was the former deposed PM who returned to Thailand in August last year, after 15 years of exile.
She is the youngest premier in the history of Thailand and the second woman to be prime minister – that was first her grandmother Yingluck Shinawatra.
In Thailand as Ung Ing.. Paetongtarn is a well-known name in Thailand since she led her own party, Pheu Thai, in the general election of last year. She became a renowned candidate, speaking at rallies until the final month of pregnancy, with her second baby.
But her family, and in particular her mother Potjaman who remains an influential leader within Pheu Thai, did not intend for her to be a PM, as they feared she could be a victim to the sorts of legal actions that caused both Yingluck along with Mr Thaksin to flee.
But the court’s unexpected decision which ended the prime ministership of Srettha Thavisin last week forced the family to resign. In addition to the former premier, Srettha, Pheu Thai had just two elected PM candidates that could succeed him. the other was Ms Paetongtarn was one of them. The other one was an elderly former prosecutor whom was believed by the party’s MPs to not possess the enthusiasm or charisma to lead the party into the next election scheduled in three years’ in the future.
Her main work experience is working in the owned by Shinawatra Rende Hotel Group. She wasn’t expected to become a politician however she did join in the Pheu Thai party in 2021.
As she takes on the role of the prime minister, she’s stepping into the political maze.
Her description of herself is that she’s a compassionate capitalist an ardent social liberal who supports Thailand’s newly introduced legality of marriage equality.
However, the term that people remember her using will be “daddy’s girl”. Whatever she does in the government it will be believed to be working according to the direction by her father. And Mr. Thaksin remains a highly polarizing persona.
The return of Mr Thaksin from exile just a year ago was the result of a deal with the most powerful conservative forces. This includes the military, who overthrew two Shinawatra government leaders in coups, as well as groups that have ties to the monarchy who have been against Mr. Thaksin since more than two years.
The astonishing performance of the reform-minded Move Forward party in last year’s elections, which pushed Pheu Thai as well as the Shinawatra clan to second place at the time for only the second time in history, made conservatives, whose political parties did worse to adjust.
In the wake of Move Forward pushing for reform of the laws governing lese majetse as well as the power to be exercised by the military Pheu Thai, whose freedom-spending populism has been copied by other political parties, is no longer the biggest threat.
Then Pheu Thai was allowed to create a coalition of 11 parties, a lot of which were long-time enemies of Mr. Thaksin in order to keep Move Forward out.
The mistrust towards Mr. Thaksin did not go away.
The condition that was not stated in his return, as well as the royal pardon accorded to the King Vajiralongkorn was that he should remain in a low-profile manner while, in line with what he said in his exile, spend time with his children.
Officially, Mr Thaksin isn’t even a part of Pheu Thai. In exile, however, Mr Thaksin always interfered, frequently to the disadvantage of his own party. The man is believed to be principal financial supporter of Pheu Thai. Since his parole release in the beginning of this year, he has been visible and loud at parties.
Some have claimed that the late Mr Thaksin of being the one who pushed for the appointment to the cabinet of an attorney who was found guilty in 2008 of attempting to get a supreme court judge to bribe him by bringing a shopping bag full of money.
The judge at the time was set to decide on the criminal case brought against Mr. Thaksin.
On Wednesday, the constitutional court that is known for repeatedly ruling against the Shinawatra clan concluded that the decision was unconstitutional and was sufficient to dismiss Mr Srettha. The decision is interpreted in Thailand as an order towards Mr Thaksin to limit his ambitions.
The man was charged in the beginning of in the year for lese majeste for remarks he made nine years ago while in exile. an incident that could have serious consequences that could be lingering over him for a long time.
All of this makes Paetongtarn’s task even more challenging. The past success of Pheu Thai was based on its reputation as a driver of the economy and enhancing the standard of living of Thais who were poorer.
However, Thailand’s economy is slowing down due to structural issues that are long-term in nature as well as a lack of response to the populist strategies that were tried by previous Shinawatra-led governments.
The party’s policy that was the most popular during the last election – a single amount of 10,000 baht ($284 PS221) through an electronic wallet for nearly all Thais is now facing resistance at the Central Bank as well as other parties over the cost to the public purse.
The party has nothing other policy options to improve its standing in the political arena in the coming three years. They will also have to contend with an ongoing and effective challenge by its reformist Move Forward Party, now being reconstituted in the form of People’s Party, after being disbanded by the Constitutional Court in the last week.
In addition, Pheu Thai finds itself in a coalition at first, its percentage of seats is less than half. The conservative partners aren’t motivated to have an Pheu Thai-led administration have enough success to rebuild its once-incredible support base voters.
The last four Shinawatra-led government’s were overthrown prior to the expiration of their term as elected through constitutional court rulings as well as military coups.
Ms. Paetongtarn hopes to beat that record, however given the ongoing chaos in Thai politics, the chances are not looking good.