The Saudi Crown Prince Is Talking About An Assassination. His Own.

Many want to take down the Saudi leader But are they using these threats to persuade an U.S. to pressure Israel regarding a possible Palestinian state?

 

The broad contours of the largely secret and still-developing pact have emerged in various reports, including my own . It includes multiple U.S. commitments to the Saudis, including security guarantees via a treaty, aid on a civilian nuclear program and economic investment in areas such as technology. According to some reports, in exchange Saudi Arabia would limit its dealings with China . It also would establish diplomatic and other ties with Israel — a huge boon for the Israelis given Saudi Arabia’s importance among Muslim nations.

To MBS his displeasure To MBS’ displeasure MBS is disappointed that the Israeli government has not been able to offer a plausible route to an independent Palestinian State in the agreement.

“The way he put it was, ‘Saudis care very deeply about this, and the street throughout the Middle East cares deeply about this, and my tenure as the keeper of the holy sites of Islam will not be secure if I don’t address what is the most pressing issue of justice in our region,'” one of the individuals who knows about conversations MBS has been having in the past with local and American officials.

The first time I heard of the Saudi royal’s meetings I was both intrigued and sceptical.

I was thinking, naturally I was thinking on the death of Jamal Khashoggi, the journalist MBS is accused of having ordered his death. Then MBS will be the person who is fearing to his very life? Does this count as irony?

I also thought of the numerous previous reports about the fact that MBS didn’t seem to care about Palestinians as he saw their cause as a hindrance to Arab development in the region and its leaders were naive. I wondered if the current threat to his life is more dangerous than the threats he’s endured: He’s forced radical social reforms within Saudi Arabia, sidelining many of his relatives as well as the conservative Islamist clergy who feel a pity for him.

However, the more I pondered the issue and talked with people who were smarter than me I’ve begun to see MBS his framing of the issue as a clever diplomatic strategy to market his business He’s claiming his life is at risk to make it easier for U.S. officials to raise the pressure on Israel to accept the terms he wants to.

The idea of placing your body in the sand for an opportunity that could be epochal is definitely a persuasive approach to grab your audience at their interest.

To be fair, it’s likely too true.

Peacemaking can be a risky business. It’s particularly relevant in Middle East countries. Middle East, where even prior to the Gaza conflict MBS was playing at the thought of creating diplomatic relations with Israel.

“It’s another method of saying, ‘This is a crucial choice for me. This is why I require something to help me make it”” explained Dennis Ross, a veteran Middle East negotiator who’s worked with a variety of American presidents.

Saudi representatives that I contacted were, as expected, reluctant to discuss the conversation between the crown prince. The Saudi Embassy in Washington did not respond to my request for comment.

A senior Saudi official has told me however, the MBS believes that if he doesn’t resolve the Palestinian issue the country will not gain the technological, economic and military advantages of the whole deal. It’s since “we’re not going to have regional security and stability without addressing the Palestinian issue,” the official stated.

His comments were understandable when compared to the way other people described MBS to me as an Saudi nationalist. The fact that he is personally concerned regarding the Palestinian cause is not important. He’ll back it when it’s beneficial to Saudi Arabia.

As it happens, the massive deal in the works could profoundly alter what happens in Middle East, not least because it will see Israel along with Saudi Arabia act as a united front against Iran.

With the calendar of elections, and the necessity for Senate to approve any treaty that is involved the deal is unlikely to happen anytime very soon. However, I am confident that regardless of what happens if the vice president Kamala Harris or ex-President Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidency in November, they will continue to pursue a variant of it.

As the Palestinian terrorists from Hamas struck Israel on the 7th of October. 7, triggering the current war several observers believed that the deal was over.

As the number of deaths in Gaza has risen — up to 40000 people are killed now, which includes militants and civilians people from Arab nations have expressed their anger at the what they perceive as Israeli inhumane acts. It’s the latest eruption of anger from citizens across the region, who have already criticized Israel for its long-running occupation of the land that is claimed by Palestinians.

Surprisingly, the best players were not willing to give up on the bargain, believing it was crucial to the long-term stability of the region. A few of the options in the discussion However, some of the proposals have required changes.

Before October. 7, negotiators had invited Palestinian leaders to look at what they could get for their people in the agreement A top Biden administration official explained to me after I asked for information directly from Biden’s White House for this column.

At that point, a few minor concessions — like agreements to discuss future talks or something else -could have pleased the Saudis. Now, the only thing they want is “a clear, irreversible path” towards an independent Palestinian state.

MBS is a dictator, who has taken a hard line against opposition to politics However, he takes a keen interest in public opinions.

The Palestinian problem is delicate particularly because it afflicts the Palestinian leader along with younger Saudis who favor his social reforms as well as offer a buffer against the religious extremists and royals who do not agree with his reforms.

“He is a young and vibrant population that has been in many ways motivated and enthralled by the first major war that erupted between Israelis and Palestinians which a large portion of them witnessed throughout their lives. It’s not hard to be in his head to realize that this is weighing upon him.” another senior Biden administration official said to me.

However, Israeli Premier Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed never to permit the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, just as the extremist members of his ruling coalition. The majority of Israeli public is against the idea following the massacre of Hamas massacred more than 1,200 people on their land in the month of October. 7.

So far, there’s no evidence that pressure from outside can alter Netanyahu’s mind or even requests from the president Joe Biden have convinced Netanyahu to develop a comprehensive strategy for dealing with Gaza following the war, let alone the Palestinians as a whole.

I contacted Israeli officials for comments The best answer I could provide was:

“Our knowledge that leaders from U.S., Saudi Arabia and Israel are all in the process of negotiating an agreement that would cover all of the U.S.-Saudi bilateral issues as well as normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia. However, it is necessary to meet certain conditions for agreement to be realized and not all of them are in position.”

It’s unclear whether MBS his strategy of highlighting the risks he’s taking will persuade Netanyahu that he also, should take the risk.

It’s risky. A different Middle Eastern figure assassinated for seeking the cause of peace is Israeli Premier Yitzhak Rabin.

However it is possible that both MBS as well as both the U.S. are likely hoping that Netanyahu will think about what is most beneficial for his country in the long term not just in the moment of crisis.